How the Vietnam War draft lottery still haunts Pulitzer Prize-winner Richard Russo

But for Nha Vy – who felt pressured by her family into having a child with her then-girlfriend so villagers would see her as a man – the most important thing is that she can be someone her boy can look up to. Like many sexual and gender minority people in Vietnam, the 26-year-old has faced stigma and discrimination for much of her life – despite a gradual change in social attitudes in the communist state. Benjamin Estioko Jr. of Shelby, North Carolina, won the $100,000 Powerball prize after purchasing a $3 Power Play Powerball ticket on Wednesday. TIME Ideas hosts the world’s leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture.
Besides, having patience is a valuable trait, especially when it comes to the lottery! Stephen Munoz Espinoza, a 43-year-old resident of Delray Beach in Palm Beach County, learned the value of patience after winning a cool $1 million after a stranger cut in front of him at a lottery ticket machine inside his local supermarket. Instead of getting Vietlott VSMB , Munoz Espinoza opted to buy a 500X THE CASH Scratch-Off game at the counter, which turned out to be a winner! “Instead of saying something, I decided, I’d just buy a ticket at the counter instead,” Munoz Espinoza explained.
1969 lottery numbers for 19 year old men were called at a rate of 30 per month during the first half of 1970. For example, a man with a #131 was ordered to report for his Physical Exam in February 1970 and classified 1-A, then ordered to report for Induction into the US Army in May 1970. With the maximum of 30 numbers being drafted per month in early-1970, May’s quota of 30 ended up drafting men with the numbers 121 through 150. Registration was resumed in July 1980 for men born in 1960 and later, and is in effect to this present time.
To illustrate, an early investigation by Seltzer and Jablon found that even more than 20 years after military service, white male World War II veterans had drastically lower mortality rates compared with the overall white male population. Reduced mortality rates for tuberculosis, cardiovascular disease, and ulcers among these veterans were particularly pronounced and underscored the potential long-term impact of selection bias on health outcomes. If military pre-induction screenings weeded out men who appeared unhealthy or otherwise unfit to serve, reduced mortality rates may have reflected not the ameliorative effects of military service but instead a lasting health selection gradient.
Thus, the remaining men eligible for induction under the 1970 lottery may not constitute a representative sample as Angrist indicates. Using a novel estimation strategy, we assessed—and detected very little—excess mortality for the 1950–1952 draft lottery cohorts. Our data come from the National Center for Health Statistics multiple cause of death file, 1989–2002. This file contains all deaths in the United States for each calendar year and thus represents the universe of recorded deaths during the time period of interest.
When going out, eating or drinking coffee and artillery, you can also buy lottery tickets or go directly to lottery ticket agents to buy them. The Vietnam-era veteran has credited his “intuition” with winning the lottery six times in one drawing on Dec. 13 for a total prize of over $2 million. If you think that the draft is just a relic of history, think again. All young American men, within 30 days of their 18th birthday, must register with the Selective Service System. If authorized by Congress and the President, that glass jar might yet again be hauled out of its storage closet and filled with plastic capsules.
Clean natural experiments that offer insight into major public health issues are rare occurrences and, thus, researchers ought to take full advantage of such opportunities. A perhaps more significant change in the draft law was reversing age priority and limiting the period of time during which a man would be vulnerable to the draft. Instead of taking the oldest men first from the 19-to-26-year-old eligible range, the revised draft would take the youngest men first.
The highest average (i.e. the “safest” month) is assigned rank 1 and so on down the line. With 100,000 iterations, we should have a pretty good idea of what a “normal” amount of deviation is, and where along the spectrum the 1969 draft lottery falls. The chart below plots the total absolute deviations from each of the iterations. For each day within each iteration, a random uniformly distributed position is assigned. It is extremely important that these random assignments come from auniform distribution. Since we are modeling what a fair lottery should look like, all possibilities must be equally likely.